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Method

How the numbers work

Everything the scan does, in the open: the data, the rules, the yields and the cost stack that turns a lot into a residual land value.

1. Data

  • Lots and addresses: NSW Spatial Services, Land Parcel and Property theme (property polygons, addresses) and road corridors (for frontage). Strata and company-title buildings are skipped; the scan is about houses.
  • Planning controls: NSW Department of Planning, Housing and Infrastructure, EPI primary planning layers: land zoning, floor space ratio, height of buildings, minimum lot size, heritage items and conservation areas, read at the lot centroid.
  • Housing SEPP maps: the Town Centres map (nominated town centres and stations for the Low and Mid-Rise provisions), the Transport Oriented Development sites map and the Low and Mid-Rise exclusion map. Of the 171 nominated centres and stations, 112 are drawn on the Town Centres map; the other 59 stations are held as entrance points that the operator maintains.
  • Development applications: the NSW Planning Portal open DA feed for the council, last 24 months, matched to lots by location.
  • Land values: the NSW Valuer General's land values (the register behind council rates and land tax) for every property in the suburb, read from the public NSW land value and property sales map: the current 1 July value and the four before it, matched to lots by property number, then by address. Refreshed when a suburb's values are more than a month old.
  • Prices: a rate for new apartments per square metre of net saleable area for each suburb, and a median house price used for the new houses an option would sell and as the fall-back ask where a lot has no land value (operator-maintained, indicative, 2026).

2. Which rules apply to a lot

  • Distance band: straight-line distance from the lot centroid to the nearest nominated centre polygon or station point. Within 400 m is the inner band, 400 to 800 m the outer band. The policy uses walking distance, which is always longer, so lots near a band edge need a route check.
  • Low and Mid-Rise (Housing SEPP Chapter 6, from 28 February 2025): applies in R1 to R4 inside the 800 m catchment, unless the lot is on the exclusion map, in a TOD area, or a heritage item. Non-refusal standards used: dual occupancy 9.5 m, 0.65:1, 450 m², 12 m frontage; terraces 9.5 m, 0.7:1, 500 m², 18 m frontage, 6 m per terrace; townhouses 9.5 m, 0.7:1, 600 m², 12 m; manor house (R1 and R2) 9.5 m, 0.8:1, 500 m², 12 m, 3 or 4 flats; residential flat buildings (R3 and R4) 22 m and 2.2:1 inside 400 m, 17.5 m and 1.5:1 from 400 to 800 m; shop-top housing in centres 24 m and 2.2:1 inside 400 m, 4 storeys and 1.5:1 outside, only where the LEP already permits it.
  • Local controls: where the LEP floor space ratio or height is more generous than the SEPP standard, the LEP figure is used (the standards are a floor, not a ceiling).
  • Transport Oriented Development (Chapter 5): inside a mapped TOD area, residential flat buildings in R1 to R4 and shop-top housing in E1, E2 and MU1: 22 m (24 m shop-top), 2.5:1, a 2% affordable housing contribution. The Low and Mid-Rise provisions do not apply inside a TOD area.
  • Affordable housing bonus (Chapter 2): 15% of floor space as affordable housing for 15 years earns a 30% bonus to floor space ratio and height for residential flat buildings and shop-top housing; the affordable share is valued at 65% of market.
  • Dual occupancy state-wide: permitted on R2 land from Stage 1 (1 July 2024), so it is costed on every R2 lot of 450 m² and 12 m frontage, inside or outside a catchment.

3. Yield

  • Gross floor area = the lesser of site area × floor space ratio and storeys × site area × 55% footprint, with 3.3 m per storey.
  • Apartments: 82% of gross floor area is saleable; the average apartment is 80 m² net. Terraces 140 m², townhouses 150 m², manor flats 95 m² each.
  • Houses: a new duplex half sells at 85% of the suburb's median house, a terrace at 68%, a townhouse at 62%.

4. Residual land value

The land price each option can carry. Gross realisation less selling costs (3%) and GST on the margin, equals (1 + developer margin 20%) × (1 + finance 7.5%) × (land × (1 + stamp duty 5.5%) + costs). Costs: construction at A$4,900 to A$5,500 per m² for apartments, A$4,100 to A$4,300 for townhouses and terraces, A$3,700 for a dual occupancy; basement parking A$68,000 a space at 0.5 spaces per apartment; demolition A$45,000 a house; consultants and approvals 9%; contributions A$28,000 per new home; contingency 5%. Solving for land gives the residual land value at that margin.

5. Likely ask and headroom

Where the Valuer General has a current land value for the lot, the likely ask is that land value times 1.15. The register values the land at its highest and best use under the current zoning, so no zone premium is added; the factor covers the house standing on it and the premium an owner expects before selling. Where no land value is on file (a lot the register has not valued yet, or an address that did not match), the fall back is the suburb's median house price scaled by lot size (area over the typical lot, to the power 0.45), with a 8% premium in R3, R4 and centre zones where owners already price in development potential. Every site page says which basis priced it and shows the land value and its five-year movement. Headroom is the residual less the likely ask. Sites are ranked by headroom. "Profit at likely ask" on each option is the pre-tax profit if the land were bought at the likely ask: realisation less selling costs and GST on the margin, less land, stamp duty, build costs and finance; at the residual price that profit is exactly the developer margin.

6. Amalgamation sites

Two houses that share a boundary of 6 m or more on the same street, and runs of three, are costed as one site. A holding is kept when its headroom is positive and larger than the headroom of its houses bought separately. Each house appears in at most one ranked holding.

7. Disclaimer

Every figure is an indicative screening estimate generated automatically from public data and the assumptions above. It is not a valuation, a feasibility study, planning advice or an offer. Planning controls change, mapped layers lag gazettal, lot geometry and frontage are measured from the digital cadastre, and distances are straight-line. Confirm every site with a planner, a quantity surveyor and a valuer before relying on it. Directory.com.au Pty Ltd accepts no liability for decisions made on these figures.